A 72 right now means Convict Lake is hike-able today, but it's not a "throw the boots in the car and roll" kind of day. The Eastern Sierra in early May is a specific kind of lying — every photo from the parking lot makes it look like summer, and every step beyond mile one reminds you it's still very much spring at 7,621 feet.

44°F at the trailhead, gusting 19 mph out of the southwest, AQI 28 — Good. No active fires within 50 km. Skies are clear-to-partly-cloudy with a 12% rain probability and absolutely no precipitation in the previous 48 hours. By any standard outside the Sierra, those numbers add up to a great hiking day. The reason the score isn't in the 90s is the wind, the water temperature, and the snow patches I'll get to in a minute. Plus, fundamental Sierra spring honesty: the conditions you have at the trailhead at 9 a.m. are not the conditions you'll have at the western shore at 11 a.m.

But the answer to "should I take Kipper to Convict Lake today?" is yes. With caveats. Read on.

Why Convict Lake Earns the Caution Today

Three things keep this trail off the "great day to go" tier in early May:

1. Late-season snow patches on the north shore. The trail loops 2.9 miles around the lake, and the south shore catches morning sun while the north shore stays in shadow until midday. Last year, my data shows snow patches on the north section into the third week of May. Today's data has me confident there are still 3–6 patches across the north and northwest shore — unconsolidated, slushy, refrozen overnight. They are passable in trail runners, but you will slide on them. If you're hiking with kids or with an older dog, microspikes are the difference between a fun morning and a sprained wrist.

Kipper does not care about ice. Kipper has never cared about ice. Kipper will run across these patches like they are an invitation. I will be holding her leash short, and you should hold yours short too if your dog has any opinions about novel surfaces.

2. Wind funneled down the canyon. Convict Lake sits in a horseshoe of granite walls — Mount Morrison to the south, Laurel Mountain to the north — and the canyon funnels prevailing southwest wind directly across the lake's western shore. The trailhead is sheltered. The west end is not. Today's 19 mph average will become a 25–30 mph cross-trail gust when you round the southwest corner around mile 1.4. Plan layers accordingly.

3. The water is 38°F. I check this because I have to: the lake is fed by Convict Creek and snowmelt, and in early May it has not had enough sunlight to warm above the high 30s. If your dog is one of the wade-in-the-shallows type — and Kipper absolutely is — let them paddle for 30 seconds, not five minutes. Hypothermia in dogs starts faster than people realize, and a fluffy coat that's been freshwater-soaked at 38°F doesn't dry on a 44°F wind day. I keep a microfiber towel in the truck specifically for this trip, and I will use it.

What's Open, What's Closed

The Convict Lake area is part of Inyo National Forest, managed by the Mammoth Ranger District. Today:

If you're going to attempt the full 2.9-mile loop, plan for 90 minutes minimum at a leisurely pace. If you have a dog who stops to investigate every smell — same — plan for 2 hours.

Gear for Today

Layered approach, because the Sierra in May rewards layering and punishes over-confidence:

The Kipper Plan

Convict Lake is on the short list of Eastern Sierra trails that are dog-friendly and short enough for a fluffy menace. The loop is 2.9 miles, mostly flat, with about 200 feet of elevation gain. That's well within Kipper's day-hike capacity, even with last week's bad weather keeping us off the longer trails.

Today's plan: short leash through the trailhead and parking area — the shoulder is busy with day-use traffic even midweek. Long leash on the south shore from mile 0.3 to mile 1.2, where the trail is wide and the wind isn't bad. Back to short leash at mile 1.4 through the windy section. Strict supervision on snow patches on the north shore from mile 2.0 to 2.6. Towel-down at the truck before we drive away — non-negotiable.

If your dog isn't great on a short leash near steep drop-offs, the eastern shore has a few short cliff sections. The cliffs aren't dangerous to a leashed adult dog with a calm temperament, but a dog who pulls hard at squirrels could get you both into trouble.

Best Time of Day

Today, target a 10 a.m. start and aim to be off the loop by 1 p.m. The wind typically peaks between 1 p.m. and 4 p.m. in this canyon. The north-shore snow patches are firmest before 11 a.m. (refrozen overnight), making them safer to cross. Photography on the lake is best between 9 and 11 a.m. — the south-shore granite catches first light, and the lake is still glassy enough for reflection shots before the wind kicks up.

If you want the dog-and-photographer's special, leave the trailhead at 9 a.m. sharp. The first 20 minutes will be cold; by the time you're at the first viewpoint the temperature will have crawled into the mid-40s and the light will be perfect.

What's Driving the 72 Score

Here's how the 72 breaks down:

The 72 score earns the "Use Caution" label. At 72, you go, and you bring the right gear. At 65, you go and watch the weather closely. At 85, you stop double-checking and just enjoy the trail.

Today's 72 means: yes, you go. Yes, Kipper can come. Yes, microspikes in the pack. Yes, towel in the truck. Yes, layered up. And no, you do not let Kipper swim in the lake unless you want to spend the next 90 minutes apologizing to a shivering dog.

Backup Plans If You Get There and It's Worse

Part of every conditions-aware Sierra hike in May is having a backup. If you get to Convict Lake and the wind has decided to be 35 mph instead of 19:

I keep three backups for every Sierra trip in May because the math says one in five drives ends with a substitution. You're not giving up. You're matching conditions to plan.

Convict Lake Loop on May 4, 2026 is a yes. The conditions earn a 72 — mid-tier "Use Caution" — and the friction is in the wind, the water temperature, and the lingering snow patches on the north shore. Bring layers. Bring microspikes if you have any doubt about your footing. Bring a towel. Watch the leash on the windy section and around the cliffs.

Do that, and you get one of the most photogenic lake-loops in the Eastern Sierra, in the kind of crisp, golden-light morning that you don't usually get later in summer when smoke season starts. Kipper approves. So do I.

— Olivia (and Kipper)

📍 Live conditions for Convict Lake Loop →