Let me start with the part of the score that's actually doing the work today, because 70 isn't 100, and the difference matters.

The trail is open. Air quality is fine. Temperature is reasonable — 58°F high, 48°F low, that's a perfectly comfortable Yosemite spring day. UV is 6. Sunrise was 5:59 a.m., sunset is 7:50 p.m. There's no fire risk. The trail status board has nothing flagged. None of those metrics are dragging the score.

What's pulling the score down to 70 is one number: 54% probability of rain.

For most trails on the alwayshave.fun grid, a 54% rain forecast costs you about 10 to 15 score points. For the Mist Trail to Vernal Fall, it costs more, and the algorithm knows it. This trail is named for what happens when water meets granite. The lower section is paved with stone steps that get wet from the falls regardless of the weather. Add actual rain on top of that, and you have a surface that takes seasoned hikers down hard every single year.

So today's score of 70 is the algorithm doing its job — telling you the conditions are within the "yes you can go" envelope, but flagging that this trail in this weather is a different animal than this trail in dry conditions. Read the rest of this before you decide.

What "Mist" Actually Means on the Mist Trail

The trail name isn't decorative. From about 0.4 miles past the trailhead all the way to the top of Vernal Fall — a stretch of maybe a third of a mile — the cascading water of the Merced River sprays the rock staircase you're climbing. In peak runoff, which is right now, that spray is heavy enough to soak you through in two minutes. People show up in cotton T-shirts and find out the hard way.

That's the trail's good day. Today's good day, given the rainfall forecast, would add weather precipitation on top of the spray.

The granite steps are uneven, polished smooth by a century of boots, and pitch downhill at angles where one bad foot-plant means a slide. The cable handrail provided on the steepest section is your friend. Use it. Don't try to be the hiker who walks past the rail like you're above it. Half the slip-and-fall reports out of Yosemite each year happen on this exact stretch.

If today's 54% rain probability hits before you're up past the falls, you're going to be on wet, polished granite, in real rain, with a 4-to-8-foot drop on one side at points. That's the actual gradient of risk. Not "you might get cold." More like "this is where you concentrate."

Practical translation: if you're an experienced hiker comfortable on slick rock, today is a usable day. If not — if your hiking experience is mostly desert or coastal trails or smooth paths — today is the day to walk the Yosemite Valley loop instead. The Mist Trail will be there next week.

The Conditions, Specifically

Should You Actually Go Today

Yes, go, but go early: if you're an experienced hiker, comfortable on wet rock, properly geared — waterproof shell, real hiking boots with aggressive tread, gloves for the cable rail — and you can be at the trailhead by 6:30 a.m. The early start gives you the morning's drier window before afternoon shower bands typically roll in. You'll catch sunrise light hitting Vernal Fall, which is one of the actual peak photo opportunities in Yosemite — May runoff plus angled morning light equals rainbow conditions in the spray. If you're a photographer specifically, this is exactly the day to be here. The score is 70, not 100, but the photographic conditions are 100. That's a real divergence.

No, defer to next week: if you're a casual hiker, not equipped for wet conditions, bringing children, or without meaningful experience on slick granite. There's no shame in this answer. The Mist Trail in dry conditions is a moderate hike. Wet, it's a moderate-to-hard hike with real fall risk. The trail's difficulty rating is based on dry-condition performance. Wet, it punches above its rating.

Maybe, with conditions: if you can be flexible on timing and willing to abort. Go, but commit to turning around at the first cable section if the rock looks worse than expected. The Vernal Fall footbridge at 0.8 miles is a perfectly satisfying turnaround — you'll see the falls clearly from the bridge. The bridge is a real destination, not a consolation prize.

What to Wear and Carry

Kipper Logistics

No dogs on the Mist Trail. No dogs on any Yosemite Valley trail above the loop trail. This is a rule that's enforced and it should be — the spray section is dangerous for humans and would be genuinely difficult for a dog. The cable rail isn't dog-shaped.

Kipper is staying home today. She processes this through a routine I've grown familiar with — a brief disappointed look at the front door, a transition to the couch that she pretends is unrelated, and then approximately twelve hours of dignified silence. American Eskimos hold grudges. She will recover by tomorrow. She always does.

If you have a dog and wanted to make a Yosemite-area weekend happen: the Hite Cove trail, just outside the park entrance off Highway 140, is dog-friendly, has wildflower bloom right now, and runs about 4.5 miles to a turnaround at the old gold mining ruins. It's the closest "you can bring your dog" option to the park, and it's a genuinely good shoulder-season hike.

Best Time to Visit This Trail, This Season

The best windows for Mist Trail to Vernal Fall, ranked from experience:

  1. Late May through mid-June. Runoff is at peak, falls are at their loudest, rainbow conditions in the morning spray are reliable, and rain probability is dropping back into the 20s. This is the actual peak of the Mist Trail experience.
  2. Mid-September through mid-October. Lower water, less spray, less danger. Fall colors in the canyon are underrated. Better for casual hikers.
  3. Early May (now). Pre-peak runoff. Falls are starting to fill out but not full. Weather variable. The trade: better photography conditions (drama, clouds) but more risk and less guaranteed waterfall volume.
  4. Late June through August. Crowds, heat, and a wall-to-wall people situation from 9 a.m. onward. Best avoided unless you're at the trailhead by 5:30 a.m.
  5. Winter. Trail closed past the footbridge from approximately late October through April. The cable section becomes deadly in icy conditions.

Parking, Permits, Logistics

What Score 70 Actually Means

The alwayshave.fun scoring system is designed to answer one question: should I go this weekend? A 100 means everything aligned in your favor. A 70 means most things are good and one significant factor is dragging — go if you understand what's dragging.

Today's drag is rain probability on a trail that's already dangerous when wet. The drag is real and the warning is intentional. But the score didn't drop to 50 ("use caution") or 30 ("poor"). It's 70 because the rain isn't certain, the trail isn't closed, the air is breathable, and the temperatures are reasonable. The trail is hike-able today. Just hike-able with judgment.

If you have the experience and gear: go. Get there at sunrise. Take photographs from the footbridge if conditions look worse than expected; press on if they look better. Use the cable. Don't rush the descent — most slips happen going down, not up.

If you don't: defer. The Mist Trail in late May, when the score will be 95+ and the falls will be at peak, is one of the best moderate-difficulty hikes in California. Wait two weeks. It's worth it.

Either way, leave the dog at home, pack a second pair of socks, and respect the granite. The mountain has been here longer than any of us.

— Olivia

📍 Live conditions for Mist Trail to Vernal Fall →